Translated by ChatGPT, edited by Sinocism.com.

Source: Yuyuan Tantian (玉渊谭天), republished by WallstreetCN (华尔街见闻) | Author: Yuyuan Tantian (玉渊谭天), China Media Group-affiliated commentary account | October 13, 2026

Regarding the China-EU negotiations on hybrid-vehicle trade, the external claim that “exports will be cut in half” is part of the EU’s own narrative, based on a linear extrapolation. In fact, the two sides agreed on an upward arrangement using the 302,000 vehicles the EU imported from China in 2025 as the baseline, with fixed increases in subsequent years, and China’s quota will be no lower than that of any other source. China successfully safeguarded export space for its companies while retaining all lawful rights, including recourse to dispute settlement at the World Trade Organization.

针对中欧混动汽车贸易谈判，外界“出口减半”系欧方线性推演的自身叙事。实际上，双方以2025年30.2万辆进口量为基准达成了向上安排及后续固定增幅，且中方配额不低于其他来源地。中方成功保障了企业出口空间，同时保留了世贸诉诸争端等一切合法权利。

Recently, many friends in financial circles have been following one issue:

最近，不少财经圈的朋友都在关注一件事：

What exactly have China and the EU agreed on in their negotiations over trade in hybrid and electric vehicles?

中欧就混动汽车、电动汽车贸易到底谈成了什么？

A claim circulating outside China says that, over the next four years, China’s hybrid-vehicle exports to Europe will have to “fall by more than half,” causing considerable alarm.

外面有种说法，未来4年，中国对欧出口的混动汽车要“减少一半以上”，搞得人心惶惶。

What are the facts?

事实如何？

Tanzhu has learned three details.

谭主了解到三个细节。

First, negotiations are based on facts, not forecasts.

第一，谈判看事实，不是预测。

Tanzhu has learned that the baseline used in the negotiations was the number of hybrid vehicles the EU imported from China in 2025: 302,000.

谭主了解到，双方谈判时的基准，是2025年欧盟自中国进口混动汽车的数量：30.2万辆。

The claim that exports would “fall by more than half” came from the EU and serves the EU’s own narrative.