Translated by Claude, edited by Sinocism.com

Original title: 以畅通经济循环提升居民消费率 | Author: Qiushi Special Commentator (本刊特约评论员)

Source: Qiushi (求是), 2026 Issue 14, July 15, 2026

Original link: https://www.qstheory.cn/20260715/f7a91daaa782465489c7c998e4429600/c.html

Consumption occupies a foundational position in the national economy. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee made "a marked increase in the household consumption rate" one of the main goals for China's economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period—a choice reflecting profound strategic considerations and real-world relevance. In 2025 China's household consumption rate was 40.0%, a clear gap compared with some countries. How should we view the issue of China's household consumption rate? There has been much discussion at home and abroad, and also some misconceptions. In analyzing the issue of China's household consumption rate, we must not simply debate numbers for numbers' sake or talk about consumption in isolation; we must proceed from the evolution of the economic development stage and from the circulation of the national economy, deeply grasp and implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee, earnestly strengthen residents' consumption capacity, fully release residents' consumption potential, and enable consumption to better play its important role in expanding domestic demand, driving the upgrading of supply, and enhancing the people's well-being.

消费在国民经济中处于基础性地位。党的二十届四中全会将"居民消费率明显提高"作为"十五五"时期我国经济社会发展的主要目标之一，具有深刻的战略考量和现实针对性。2025年我国居民消费率为40.0%，与一些国家相比差距明显。怎么看我国居民消费率问题？国内外有不少讨论，也存在一些认识误区。分析我国居民消费率问题，不能简单就数字论数字、就消费谈消费，要从经济发展阶段演进和国民经济循环出发，深入领会和贯彻落实党中央决策部署，切实增强居民消费能力，充分释放居民消费潜力，使消费更好发挥扩大国内需求、牵引供给升级、增进民生福祉的重要作用。

One view holds that China's relatively low household consumption rate shows that ordinary people's living standards are not high. This seems reasonable at first glance but is actually not so—the consumption rate does not directly equal the standard of living. The household consumption rate is a structural indicator that measures the share of household consumption in GDP, whereas household consumption expenditure, and especially per capita consumption expenditure, is the economic indicator that reflects the value of goods and services residents actually purchase; the two concepts must not be conflated. World Bank data show that in 2024 China's household consumption rate ranked beyond 100th globally, yet its per capita consumption expenditure was significantly higher than that of many middle-income economies. This stark contrast shows that judging living standards by the consumption rate is unreliable. Looking at the Human Development Index, which more comprehensively measures development achievements, China is the only country in the world to have leapt from the low human development group to the high human development group since the index was first compiled and used in 1990. This more truthfully reflects the enormous improvement in the living standards of the Chinese people.

有一种观点认为，我国居民消费率偏低，说明老百姓生活水平不高。乍看有理，实则不然，消费率并不直接等于生活水平。居民消费率是一个结构性指标，衡量的是居民消费占国内生产总值的比重，而居民消费支出特别是人均消费支出，才是反映居民实际购买的商品和服务价值的经济指标，不可将两个概念混为一谈。世界银行数据显示，2024年我国居民消费率的全球排名在100名开外，但人均消费支出显著高于不少中等收入经济体。这一悬殊反差表明，以消费率来评判生活水平是靠不住的。从更能综合衡量发展成果的人类发展指数看，中国是自1990年该指数编制使用以来，全球唯一从低人类发展水平组跨越到高人类发展水平组的国家。这更真实地反映了我国人民生活水平的巨大改善。

From a global perspective, one direct reason for China's relatively low household consumption rate is price differences. According to statistics, the prices of basic livelihood services in China are far lower than in developed countries such as the United States; in 2021 China's prices for education, health, and housing services were equivalent to only 54.2%, 30.7%, and 32.2% of those in the United States, respectively, so household consumption expenditure was clearly depressed in a statistical sense. This difference is related to the stage of development, as well as to the mode of public service provision and the price formation mechanism. In developed countries such as the United States, medical care, higher education, and housing services are highly marketized, while high costs for labor, insurance, land, and the like tend to push up market prices. In China, by contrast, fields such as compulsory education, basic medical care, indemnificatory (affordable) housing, and water, electricity and gas have a stronger public character; through fiscal investment, government pricing, and inclusive provision, the monetized cost for residents to obtain basic livelihood services is reduced. Moreover, public service and social governance achievements—such as a high-speed rail network covering the whole country, the deep popularization of mobile payment, and the continuous improvement of public security—have greatly enhanced the people's well-being, yet cannot be adequately measured in household consumption statistics. In the final analysis, China's use of systematic institutional arrangements to bring the fruits of development more evenly to all the people is a concrete embodiment of adhering to the people-centered development philosophy in improving livelihoods, and this has not been fully reflected in statistical data. That many low-income countries have high household consumption rates yet markedly low living standards is precisely a counterexample. Therefore, in viewing the household consumption rate issue, we must first discard the "numerical anxiety" and "indicator-only mentality" of simply benchmarking against other countries in ways divorced from reality.

从全球范围看，我国居民消费率偏低的一个直接原因是价格差异。据统计，我国基础民生服务价格远低于美国等发达国家，2021年我国教育、卫生、居住服务等价格仅相当于美国的54.2%、30.7%、32.2%，居民消费支出在统计意义上被明显压低了。这种差异与发展阶段有关，也与公共服务供给模式和价格形成机制有关。美国等发达国家的医疗、高等教育、居住服务市场化程度较高，同时人工、保险、土地等高成本往往推高市场价格。而我国义务教育、基本医疗、保障性住房、水电气等领域的公共属性较强，通过财政投入、政府定价和普惠供给，降低了居民获得基本民生服务的货币化成本。还有，高铁网络覆盖全国、移动支付深度普及、社会治安持续向好等公共服务和社会治理成效，极大增进了民生福祉，无法在居民消费统计中得到充分度量。说到底，我国以系统性制度安排将发展成果更均衡地惠及全体人民，是坚持以人民为中心的发展思想在改善民生方面的具体体现，没有在统计数据上得到充分反映。不少低收入国家的居民消费率虽高，生活水平却明显偏低，恰是反证。因此，看待居民消费率问题，首先要摒弃简单对标他国、脱离实际的"数字焦虑"、"唯指标论"。

If the household consumption rate does not directly reflect living standards, then what exactly does it reveal? In national economic accounting, the consumption rate reflects the structural relationship among consumption, investment, and net exports; it is an important indicator for observing a country's stage of development, demand structure, and the characteristics of its economic circulation, and to a certain extent it embodies the features of an economic development model. Looking back at the period of high-speed economic growth after reform and opening up, China—relying on high savings and high investment and seizing the opportunity of joining the World Trade Organization—achieved leapfrog industrialization and urbanization in a relatively short time. During this period, investment and exports grew rapidly and continuously; even as residents' consumption levels kept rising and the total volume kept expanding, the household consumption rate was inevitably depressed. From 1978 to 2025, China's household consumption expenditure grew 318-fold, while gross capital formation grew by as much as 394-fold, causing the household consumption rate to fall at one point from a historical high of 53.3% in 1981 to a low of 34.9% in 2010. Viewed this way, China's relatively low household consumption rate is precisely a profound reflection of the intrinsic characteristics of a catch-up development model, an inevitable result of the optimal allocation of resources under specific conditions, and it has a historical rationality. Looking further from the perspective of development, the rapidly accomplished accumulation of physical capital, the continuously consolidated industrial base, and the increasingly complete infrastructure network may seem not to have translated directly into immediate consumption, but in fact they provide strong support for the improvement of livelihoods and the upgrading of consumption in the current and coming period. World Bank data show that in 2024 the household consumption rates of low-income, lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, and high-income countries and regions were 82.0%, 73.4%, 48.8%, and 58.6%, respectively. The relatively high household consumption rates of many countries and regions actually reflect the real predicament of weak savings accumulation and insufficient investment capacity—by no means an embodiment of better livelihoods or a superior economic structure.

居民消费率不直接反映生活水平，那它究竟揭示了什么？在国民经济核算中，消费率反映的是消费和投资、净出口之间的结构性关系，是观察一国发展阶段、需求结构和经济循环特征的重要指标，在一定程度上体现着经济发展模式的特征。回望改革开放后经济高速增长时期，我国依托高储蓄、高投资，以加入世界贸易组织为契机，在较短时间实现了工业化、城镇化的跨越式发展。这一时期，投资与出口持续快速增长，即便居民消费水平不断提高、总量持续扩大，居民消费率仍不可避免地被压低。1978年至2025年，我国居民消费支出增长了318倍，而资本形成总额增长高达394倍，导致居民消费率一度从1981年53.3%的历史高位回落至2010年34.9%的低点。由此看，我国居民消费率偏低，正是赶超型发展模式内在特征的深刻反映，是特定条件下资源优化配置的必然结果，具有历史合理性。再从发展的角度看，快速完成的物质资本积累、不断夯实的产业基础和日趋完善的基础设施网络，看似没有直接转化为即期消费，实际上为当前和今后一个时期民生改善与消费升级提供了有力支撑。世界银行数据显示，2024年低收入组、中低收入组、中高收入组、高收入组国家和地区的居民消费率分别为82.0%、73.4%、48.8%、58.6%。许多国家和地区的居民消费率偏高，其实折射出的是储蓄积累薄弱、投资能力不足的现实困境，绝非民生福祉与经济结构更优的体现。

However, historically rational does not mean rational over the long run. As China's economy shifts to a stage of high-quality development, the internal and external conditions that once supported large-scale investment and massive exports are undergoing profound change. The marginal returns on investment in traditional infrastructure and industrial fields are declining, and the room to sustain growth by relying on a high investment rate has clearly narrowed. With slowing global economic growth, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying geopolitical risks, export growth faces greater uncertainty. At a deeper level, the continued expansion of China's economic scale will inevitably bring about a law-governed transformation of the economic structure, requiring a shift from being driven mainly by investment and exports to being led by domestic demand and pulled by consumption. The current relatively low household consumption rate is no longer a "desirable outcome" of a particular stage, but a "mismatch signal" between the development model and the development stage. The supporting conditions of the traditional growth logic are weakening, and a new development model urgently needs to be established; we must attach greater importance to the foundational role of consumption in order to provide relatively stable and more sustainable demand support for the healthy development of the economy. Only by profoundly grasping this historical logic can we fully understand the deep implications and strategic considerations of raising the household consumption rate.

然而，历史合理并不等于长期合理。随着我国经济转向高质量发展阶段，过去支撑大规模投资和大量出口的内外部条件正在发生深刻变化。传统基础设施和工业领域的投资边际回报下降，依靠高投资率维持增长的空间明显收窄。全球经济增速放缓、贸易保护主义抬头、地缘政治风险加剧，出口增长面临更多不确定性。更深层次，我国经济规模持续扩大，必然带来经济结构的规律性转换，必须从主要靠投资和出口拉动转向内需主导、消费拉动。当前居民消费率偏低，已不再是特定阶段的"合意结果"，而是发展模式与发展阶段之间的"错配信号"。传统增长逻辑的支撑条件正在弱化，新的发展模式亟待建立，必须更加重视消费的基础性作用，为经济健康发展提供相对稳定、更可持续的需求支撑。深刻把握这一历史逻辑，才能全面理解提升居民消费率的深刻内涵和战略考量。

Therefore, at the present stage the key to raising China's household consumption rate lies in promoting the optimization of the demand structure and smooth economic circulation, and in accelerating the formation of a new development model that is led by domestic demand, pulled by consumption, and endogenously growing—not in propping up the indicator through short-term stimulus policies such as "helicopter money" (直升机撒钱, a reference to Milton Friedman's economics metaphor for blanket cash handouts), still less in reducing it to a rigid assessment target. Changes in the household consumption rate depend on the relative relationship between the growth rate of household consumption expenditure and the growth rate of GDP. If investment, foreign trade, and the like expand rapidly, making GDP grow faster than household consumption expenditure, the household consumption rate will fall; otherwise it will rise. It is impossible to raise the household consumption rate by suppressing investment and foreign trade activity; the emphasis should be on promoting a higher-level virtuous cycle among investment, foreign trade, and consumption. In addition, household consumption is a slow variable; although short-term consumption subsidies can boost the data, they easily overdraw future potential, and once the policy is withdrawn, growth may fall back, making it hard to drive a fundamental transformation of the development model.

因此，现阶段提升我国居民消费率，关键在于推动需求结构优化和经济循环畅通，加快形成内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的新发展模式，而不在于通过"直升机撒钱"等短期刺激政策拉抬指标，更不能简化为硬性考核任务。居民消费率的变动，取决于居民消费支出增速和国内生产总值增速的相对关系。若投资、外贸等扩张较快，使国内生产总值增速快于居民消费支出，居民消费率就会下降，反之就会上升。不可能为了提高居民消费率而去抑制投资和外贸活动，重在推动投资、外贸与消费形成更高水平的良性循环。另外，居民消费是慢变量，短期消费补贴虽能拉升数据，却易透支后续潜力，一旦政策退坡，就可能出现增速回落，难以驱动发展模式的根本转型。

Promoting a reasonable increase in the household consumption rate must rely on smooth and efficient circulation of the national economy. Investment drives employment, employment generates income, income converts into consumption, and consumption in turn provides the realization of value for investment—each link is interlocked and none can be missing. But in reality this process cannot be realized automatically; there remain quite a few chokepoints and blockages. For example, investment has not been fully converted into residents' employment and income. Some localities engage in homogeneous competition around similar industries and projects, and some enterprises rely more on lowering costs and prices to maintain competitiveness, so the growth of residents' wage income and business income is constrained. For example, the distribution mechanism constrains residents' income growth and consumption increases. In primary distribution, the mechanisms for wage determination, reasonable growth, and payment guarantees for workers are still imperfect, and the share of labor remuneration in primary distribution still needs to be raised. In redistribution, policies on taxation, social security, and transfer payments still have considerable room for optimization; residents' rigid expenditures in high-level livelihood areas such as education, medical care, and elderly care remain large, the propensity for precautionary saving is relatively strong, and people have money but dare not spend it. For example, there are still supply-demand mismatch obstacles to converting residents' income into consumption. Residents' consumption demand is rapidly shifting toward development-oriented and quality-oriented consumption, and the consumption structure is shifting toward giving equal weight to goods consumption and services consumption, but the supply of high-quality, personalized, premium consumption is insufficient, so people want to spend but have nowhere to spend. If any single link "drops the chain" (掉链子, a colloquial idiom for failing at the critical moment), it will affect the raising of the household consumption rate.

推动居民消费率合理提升，必须依托畅通高效的国民经济循环。投资带动就业，就业形成收入，收入转化为消费，消费反过来为投资提供价值实现，环环相扣、缺一不可。但现实中，这个过程并非能够自动实现，还存在不少卡点堵点。比如，投资未能充分转化为居民就业和收入。一些地区围绕相似产业和项目进行同质化竞争，一些企业更多依靠压低成本、价格等方式来维持竞争力，居民的工资性收入和经营性收入增长受限。比如，分配机制约束了居民增收和消费提升。初次分配中，劳动者工资决定、合理增长、支付保障机制还不完善，劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重仍需提高。再分配中，税收、社保、转移支付等政策仍有较大优化空间，居民在高水平的教育、医疗、养老等民生领域的刚性支出依旧较大，预防性储蓄意愿偏强，有钱不敢花。比如，居民收入转化为消费仍有供需错配障碍。居民消费需求正加快转向发展型、品质型，消费结构转向商品消费与服务消费并重，但高品质、个性化的优质消费供给不足，想花钱却没地方花。任何一个环节"掉链子"，都会影响居民消费率的提升。

In sum, raising the household consumption rate is a profound transformation of economic governance and a systemic undertaking that bears on the economic structure, the distribution pattern, the market mechanism, and more. In recent years, focusing on the strategy of expanding domestic demand, the Party Central Committee has made systematic arrangements around boosting household consumption: rolling out the consumer-goods trade-in policy, implementing special actions to boost consumption, coordinating efforts to promote employment, increase incomes, and stabilize expectations, promoting a virtuous interaction between consumption and investment, and closely integrating investing in things with investing in people—and the practical results have gradually become apparent. In 2025 China's household consumption rate reached 40.0%, 5.1 percentage points higher than in 2010, maintaining an overall upward trend. But transforming the mode of economic development is a long-term process; we must maintain historical patience and strategic resolve, proceed from the overall situation of national economic circulation, smooth the circulation through reform, expand space through structure, and stabilize expectations through institutions, clear the chokepoints and blockages constraining consumption at every link, better bring into play the foundational role of consumption, and inject lasting and robust endogenous momentum into high-quality development.