China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (中国现代国际关系研究院 /CICIR) scholar Xu Yongzhi 徐永智 in the November 16 PLA Daily
Translated via Sinocism.com
Recently, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi openly made brazenly provocative Taiwan-related remarks during Diet questioning, and after China lodged a strong protest, Takaichi refused to retract her erroneous comments. This is the first time a sitting Japanese prime minister has explicitly indicated the possibility of military intervention in the Taiwan Strait situation. It confirms that Japan’s recent moves to strengthen its military capabilities are clearly aimed at containing China, and exposes the Japanese government’s vicious ambition to violate the Peace Constitution and attempt to interfere in other countries’ internal affairs by military means. The various erroneous actions taken by the Japanese side, including clamoring for military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, will only push Japan onto a path of no return. 日本首相高市早苗日前在国会答辩时公然发表涉台露骨挑衅言论，在中方表达强烈抗议后，高市拒不撤回错误言论。这是日本在任首相首次明确可能武力介入台海局势，证实了日本近年来强化军力举措的遏华指向性，暴露了日本政府违背和平宪法，妄图以军事手段干涉别国内政的狼子野心。日方种种错误举动，甚至叫嚣武力介入台海局势，只会把自己引向不归歧途。
In 2015, Japan passed new security legislation allowing the Self-Defense Forces to conduct joint operations with foreign militaries. In institutional terms, this hollowed out the Peace Constitution’s prohibition on Japan engaging in warfare again. In 2022, Japan adopted the new “three security documents,” including the National Security Strategy, making it a national security objective to prevent neighboring countries from “unilaterally changing the status quo,” and, when necessary, to use force “to resolve situations in a manner favorable to Japan,” thereby embarking on the construction of large-scale offensive capabilities and long-term high-intensity combat capacity. In substance, this has rewritten the Peace Constitution’s ban on equipping offensive weapons. On the basis of those strategic documents, Japan is simultaneously developing or deploying more than a dozen types of anti-ship and land-attack missiles with ranges of up to 3,000 kilometers, while refurbishing military infrastructure nationwide and stockpiling large quantities of ammunition. 2015年，日本通过新安保法案，允许自卫队与外军联合作战。不允许日本再次从事战争的和平宪法由此在制度上被架空。2022年，日本通过《国家安全保障战略》等新“安保三文件”，将遏止周边国家“单方面改变现状”乃至必要时动用武力“使事态以有利于日本的形式解决”作为国家安全目标，开始建设大规模进攻性武力、长期高强度作战能力。不允许装备进攻性武器的和平宪法由此在实质上被篡改。基于前述战略文件，日本正在同时研发或列装10余种射程最远可达3000公里的反舰、对地导弹，在全国范围内翻新军事基建，大量储备弹药。
Previously, whenever the Japanese government was asked why it was strengthening its military, it would trot out the excuse of a “severe security environment in the surrounding region,” arguing that a stronger military was “only for self-defense,” which on the surface did not appear to deviate from the Peace Constitution’s “exclusively defense-oriented” principle. According to media reports, the main basis for Japan’s 2022 force-build-up plan was the result of war-gaming a military intervention in the Taiwan Strait situation, but Japanese leaders have always been evasive on whether they would actually intervene by force. Japan plans to revise the new “three security documents” before the end of 2026, further increasing military spending to bolster its ability to employ and counter unmanned systems and other new forms of combat capability. Takaichi’s blatant provocative remarks this time confirm that Japan is clearly intent on large-scale military build-up in violation of the Peace Constitution, and all the various lies previously put forward by the Japanese government collapse of their own accord. Now that Takaichi has made these statements, one wonders how the Japanese government will explain this new round of military expansion. 此前，日本政府一被问及为何强化军力时，便会拿出“周边安全形势严峻”作借口，辩称强军只是“为了自卫”，字面上似乎并未背离和平宪法确立的“专守防卫”原则。据媒体报道，日本2022年版军力建设规划的主要根据是武力介入台海局势的推演结果，但日本领导人对是否武力介入的问题一贯含糊其辞。日本计划于2026年年底前对新“安保三文件”进行修订，将再增军费，以强化使用与应对无人装备等新型作战能力。此次高市早苗的露骨挑衅言论证实了日本违背和平宪法进行大规模强军意图明确，而日本政府此前辩称的种种谎言不攻自破。高市此言一出，不知日本政府又将如何解释新一轮强军扩武？
Whether in defiance of the Peace Constitution to build up its armed forces, or in once again invoking the so-called “situation that threatens the nation’s survival,” Japanese politicians have never told the Japanese people what the real price would be. It is foreseeable that, if Japan were to intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait situation, both the Japanese people and the Japanese state would be plunged into disaster by their government’s extremely dangerous and erroneous decision. First, it would worsen Japan’s surrounding environment. If the Japanese government willfully goes its own way and once again makes itself an enemy of the Chinese people, it will only heighten China’s vigilance toward Japan’s external strategy, and constructive, stable China–Japan relations will become impossible to talk about. Second, there is a risk that the entire country could become a battlefield. Japan has already converted dozens of airports and ports from Hokkaido in the north to Okinawa in the south into dual-use military and civilian infrastructure. In a comprehensive exercise this October, the Self-Defense Forces used as many as 39 airports and ports for aircraft take-offs and landings and for military transport. This indicates that if Japan intervenes in the Taiwan Strait, the Japanese government will be tying people across the entire country to a chariot of self-destruction. Third, Japan will once again be nailed to the pillar of historical shame. Japanese politicians’ brazenly provocative Taiwan-related remarks are not only a serious infringement on China’s sovereignty, but also enable the international community to smell the dangerous odor of Japan repeating the tragic mistakes of militarism. The wars of aggression launched by Japan once brought immense suffering to the peoples of Asian countries. As a defeated country in World War II, Japan’s return of the territories it had stolen from China, including Taiwan, to China is an outcome of the World Anti-Fascist War that brooks no challenge, and is an important component of the post-war international order. One really has to ask where Japan, which fantasizes about pitting a mantis’s forelegs against a chariot and challenging the post-war order, gets its “confidence” to intervene in the Taiwan Strait. 日本政客无论是在违背和平宪法强军扩武时，还是再提所谓“存亡危机事态”时，都没有告诉日本国民它的真实代价。可以预见的是，如果武力介入台海局势，日本国民和国家都将因为日本政府极其危险且错误的决策陷入灾难。第一，恶化自身周边环境。如果日本政府一意孤行，再次与中国人民为敌，只会加剧中国对日本对外战略的警惕，建设性的、稳定的中日关系将无从谈起。第二，全国都有沦为战场的风险。日本已将北至北海道、南至冲绳的数十个机场、港口变为军民两用基础设施。在今年10月的综合演习中，自卫队使用了多达39个机场、港口进行战机起降和军事运输。这表明如果介入台海，日本政府会将全国民众绑上自毁的战车。第三，再次被钉在历史的耻辱柱上。日本政客涉台露骨挑衅言论不仅是对中国主权的严重侵犯，更让国际社会嗅到了日本重蹈军国主义覆辙的危险气息。日本发动的侵略战争曾给亚洲国家人民带来深重灾难。作为二战战败国，日本把从中国所窃取的领土包括台湾归还中国，这是世界反法西斯战争不容挑战的胜利成果，也是战后国际秩序的重要组成部分。不知妄想螳臂当车、挑战战后国际秩序的日本，介入台海的“自信”从何而来？
The Japanese authorities’ attempt to intervene in the Taiwan Strait situation is not only a crude trampling on international justice and a flagrant provocation against the post-war international order, but also a grave sabotage of China–Japan relations. The lessons of history are not remote. If Japan does not draw profound lessons from history and dares to take a reckless gamble, China will surely deal it a head-on blow. After all, once you start playing with fire, the way in which the flames spread is no longer something the fire-starter can control. 日本当政者妄图介入台海局势，既是对国际正义的粗暴践踏、对战后国际秩序的公然挑衅，也是对中日关系的严重破坏。殷鉴不远，日本若不深刻汲取历史教训，胆敢铤而走险，中方必将给予迎头痛击。毕竟一旦开始玩火，火势如何延烧，并不由玩火者决定。
(The author is with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.) （作者单位：中国现代国际关系研究院 ）