Translated by Claude, edited by Sinocism.com.

Deputy Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics Answers Reporters' Questions on National Economic Performance in the First Half of 2026

国家统计局副局长就2026年上半年国民经济运行情况答记者问

Source: National Bureau of Statistics | 2026-07-15 | Speakers: Mao Shengyong (毛盛勇), Wang Guanhua (王冠华)

CCTV reporter: In the first half of this year, facing uncertainty in the external environment, China's economy maintained steady growth. How would you assess the overall performance of the economy in the first half, and what were the bright spots and positive changes? Thank you.

总台央视记者：今年上半年面对外部环境的不确定性，中国经济保持了平稳增长。请问，如何评价上半年经济运行总体表现，有哪些亮点和积极变化？谢谢。

Mao Shengyong: Thank you for your question. Since the start of this year, the external environment has been marked by intertwined change and turbulence, while at home some new circumstances and old problems have overlapped. Facing this complex situation, under the strong leadership of the Party Center with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all localities and departments have taken the initiative and applied comprehensive measures, implementing more proactive macroeconomic policies precisely and effectively, developing new quality productive forces according to local conditions, and effectively responding to external shocks and challenges. China's economy has withstood pressure and continued a development trend that is generally steady and moving toward the new and the better, showing strong resilience and vitality. The basic picture can be summed up in four words: "steady," "resilient," "new," and "better."

毛盛勇：谢谢您的提问。今年以来，外部环境变乱交织，国内一些新情况、老问题交织叠加。面对复杂局面，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门主动作为、综合施策，精准有效实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，因地制宜发展新质生产力，有效应对外部冲击挑战。中国经济顶住压力延续总体平稳、向新向优的发展态势，展现出强大的韧性和活力。从基本情况看，可以概括为“稳”“韧”“新”“优”四个方面。

First, "steady." Economic performance was generally steady, with the main indicators running within a reasonable range. On growth: in the first half of this year, gross domestic product totaled 69.6 trillion yuan, up 4.7 percent year on year in constant prices, a rate consistent with the expected target for economic growth for the year. Compared with the first half of last year, the GDP increment was 3.6 trillion yuan, the largest increment for the same period in the past five years. For an economy of China's super-large scale, achieving 4.7 percent growth is no small feat. Although the second-quarter growth rate eased somewhat, the fundamentals of stable economic performance and movement toward the new and the better have not changed. Since the start of this year, and particularly since the second quarter, new changes have emerged in the world economy, and some international institutions expect growth in the major economies to have eased to varying degrees in the second quarter — for example, the United States from 2.7 percent growth in the first quarter to a projected 2.1 percent, Japan from 0.4 percent in the first quarter to a projected 0.2 percent, and the eurozone to around 0.5 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.0 percent, against 3.5 percent last year, but raised its forecast for China's full-year economic growth by 0.2 percentage point. On employment: the average urban surveyed unemployment rate in the first half was 5.2 percent, level with the same period last year and 0.1 percentage point lower than in the first quarter. On prices: the CPI rose moderately, up 1.0 percent year on year in the first half, with core CPI up 1.2 percent, generally holding above the 1 percent level. The PPI turned from negative to positive, rising 1.5 percent in the first half after falling 0.6 percent in the first quarter. Both price measures are running in a reasonable range of 1–2 percent; prices are performing quite well overall, at a level of moderate increase, and this is not easy. Inflationary pressure is now rising sharply in most economies around the world, and the IMF recently raised its full-year global inflation forecast to 4.7 percent. Under such circumstances, our prices have still held steady. On the balance of payments: the scale of goods trade hit another record high, foreign exchange reserves have held above 3.4 trillion U.S. dollars, and the renminbi exchange rate has appreciated about 3 percent from the start of the year. Taking the macro indicators together, China's overall macroeconomy is steady and the main indicators are running within a reasonable range — this is what we mean by "steady."

第一是“稳”。经济运行总体平稳，主要指标运行在合理区间。从增长看，今年上半年，国内生产总值总量69.6万亿元，按不变价计算同比增长4.7%，增速符合全年经济增长预期目标。和去年上半年比，GDP增量3.6万亿元，是近五年同期最大增量。对于我国这样超大规模的经济体，实现4.7%的增长难能可贵。尽管二季度增速有所回落，但是经济稳定运行、向新向优的基本面并没有变化。今年以来特别是二季度以来，世界经济出现新的变化，一些国际机构预计二季度主要经济体增速都有不同程度的回落，比如美国由一季度增长2.7%预计回落至2.1%，日本由一季度增长0.4%预计回落至0.2%，欧元区预计增长0.5%左右。国际货币基金组织（IMF）近期下调今年全球经济预期增速至3.0%，去年为增长3.5%，但上调中国全年经济增长预期0.2个百分点。从就业看，上半年城镇调查失业率均值是5.2%，和上年同期持平，比一季度下降了0.1个百分点。从物价看，CPI温和回升，今年上半年同比上涨1.0%，核心CPI上涨1.2%，总体维持在1%以上的水平。PPI由负转正，今年上半年PPI上涨1.5%，一季度下降0.6%。两个价格都运行在1%—2%的合理区间，价格总体运行比较理想，处于温和上涨水平，这不容易。现在全球多数经济体通胀的压力在大幅上升，IMF近期也提高全年全球通胀预期，上调至4.7%。在这样的情况下，我们的价格仍保持稳定运行。从国际收支看，货物贸易规模再创新高，外汇储备稳定在3.4万亿美元以上，人民币汇率比年初升值3%左右。综合宏观指标来看，中国整体宏观经济是平稳的，主要指标运行在合理区间，这是我们讲的“稳”。

Second, "resilient." The resilience of China's economic development continued to show, effectively meeting external risks and challenges. On energy supply: since March, geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted global energy supply, and China has worked on both independent production and diversified imports. In the first half, domestic production of crude oil, natural gas, and electricity all hit record highs for the same period; crude oil output of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 0.9 percent year on year, natural gas rose 1.6 percent, and electricity generation rose 3.5 percent. Production of the main energy products was steady, imports were independently controllable, energy supply was relatively ample, and all kinds of energy demand for production and daily life were well met. On market prices: climbing energy prices have added to global inflationary pressure, and the IMF raised its global inflation forecast for this year to 4.7 percent. By contrast, China's policies to secure supply and stabilize prices have been forceful and effective, the price control mechanism for refined oil products was activated and implemented in timely fashion, and CPI increases have been moderate with little volatility. On food security: summer grain output topped 300 billion jin for the first time this year, further consolidating the foundation of food security and laying a solid foundation for the year's grain production, price stability, and livelihood safeguards. On foreign trade: global trade growth has slowed, but China's imports and exports have shown strong resilience. In the first half, total imports and exports of goods reached 25.5 trillion yuan, with exports up 13.4 percent and imports up 22.1 percent; in the first quarter China's share of global foreign trade rose by about 0.8 percentage point year on year. In a complex and volatile external environment, the resilience of China's economy has been very strong.

第二是“韧”。中国经济发展韧性持续彰显，有效应对了外部风险挑战。从能源保供来看，3月份以来中东地缘冲突严重冲击全球能源供应，我国一手抓自主生产，一手抓多元进口。上半年，国内原油、天然气、电力生产均创历史同期新高，规模以上工业原油产量同比增长0.9%，天然气增长1.6%，发电量增长3.5%，主要能源产品生产平稳，进口自主可控，能源供应相对充足，很好满足了生产生活各类用能需求。从市场价格看，能源价格攀升导致全球通胀压力加大，国际货币基金组织将今年全球通胀预期上调至4.7%，相比之下，我国保供稳价政策有力有效，及时启动实施成品油价格调控机制，CPI涨势温和，波动不大。从粮食安全看，夏粮产量今年首次突破3000亿斤，进一步夯实粮食安全基础，也为全年粮食生产、物价稳定、民生保障奠定坚实基础。从对外贸易看，全球贸易增长趋缓，但我国进出口展现了很强韧性，上半年货物进出口总额达到25.5万亿元，其中出口增长13.4%，进口增长22.1%；一季度我国外贸占全球份额同比提高约0.8个百分点。在复杂多变的外部环境下，中国经济的韧性表现非常强劲。

Third, "new." The move toward the new and the better picked up speed steadily, with new drivers contributing more than 40 percent. New drivers include not only the growth of industries representing new technologies and new fields, such as high- and new-technology industries, modern services, and digital industries, but also the green transformation, quality improvement, and upgrading that traditional industries achieve through digital and intelligent retrofitting. According to preliminary calculations, in the first half of this year new drivers represented by high-end manufacturing, the digital and intelligent economy, and modern services contributed more than 40 percent of economic growth in the first half. The character of an economy moving toward the new and the better is very pronounced, and the overall trend is accelerating. For example, in the first half the value added of high-technology manufacturing above designated size rose 13.3 percent year on year, with the value added of aerospace vehicle and equipment manufacturing and of electronic and communications equipment manufacturing up 16.3 percent and 17 percent respectively, while AI-related industries such as integrated circuit manufacturing and intelligent in-vehicle equipment manufacturing all maintained high growth of more than 30 percent. The pace of green transformation quickened: in the first half, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60 percent for three consecutive months, driving lithium-ion battery output up 39.3 percent. In recent years the pace at which new drivers have replaced old ones has quickened, and new drivers keep growing stronger and are increasingly carrying the weight of China's economy.

第三是“新”。向新向优稳步提速，新动能贡献率超过四成。新动能不仅包括高新技术产业、现代服务业、数字产业等代表新技术、新领域的行业成长，也包括传统行业通过数智化改造实现绿色转型发展和提质升级。初步测算，今年上半年，以高端制造、数智经济、现代服务为代表的新动能对上半年经济增长的贡献率超过四成，经济向新向优的特点非常鲜明，而且总的发展趋势在加快。例如，上半年规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长13.3%，其中航空航天器及设备制造、电子及通信设备制造行业增加值分别增长16.3%、17%，与人工智能相关的集成电路制造、智能车载设备制造等行业都保持30%以上的高增长。绿色转型步伐加快，上半年新能源汽车零售渗透率连续三个月超过60%，带动锂离子电池产量增长39.3%。近年来，新旧动能接续转换节奏加快，新动能在不断成长壮大，日益挑起中国经济的大梁。

Fourth, "better." Quality and returns improved, and the quality of economic development is substantial. One, manufacturing's share rose while remaining stable. Manufacturing is the foundation of China's economy and also its strength. In the first half of this year, manufacturing value added accounted for 26.2 percent of GDP, 0.4 percentage point higher than three years ago. Two, corporate profits and expectations improved. From January to May, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 18.8 percent year on year, sustaining double-digit growth since the start of the year. Profitability was particularly better in industries tied to new drivers, such as electronics and nonferrous metals. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3 percent and the business activity index for services was 50.4 percent, up 0.3 and 0.1 percentage point respectively from the previous month, indicating that market expectations are generally stable. Three, energy intensity fell. The industrial structure has been optimized, energy-saving technologies keep being rolled out, and the green and low-carbon transition is driving energy consumption steadily down. Preliminary calculations show energy consumption per unit of GDP fell 1.9 percent year on year in the first half.

第四是“优”。质量效益优化改善，经济发展成色很足。一是制造业占比稳中有升。制造业是中国经济的根基，也是中国经济的优势。从今年上半年看，制造业增加值占GDP的比重为26.2%，比三年前提高了0.4个百分点。二是企业利润和预期改善。1—5月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长18.8%，今年以来持续保持两位数增长。特别是电子、有色等与新动能相关的行业盈利状况更好。6月份，制造业PMI为50.3%，服务业商务活动指数为50.4%，分别比上月提高了0.3和0.1个百分点，表明市场预期总体稳定。三是能耗强度下降。产业结构优化，节能技术不断推广，绿色低碳转型推动能耗稳步下降。初步测算，上半年单位GDP能耗同比下降1.9%。

Taking the above together: the current international situation is complex and volatile, world economic growth is slowing overall, international trade is also slowing, and inflationary pressure is rising markedly in most countries. Under such circumstances, China's economy holding a 4.7 percent growth rate in the first half of this year is no small feat. At the same time, prices have held to moderate increases, employment has been generally stable, the balance of payments has improved, and in particular new drivers in emerging fields are growing stronger at a faster pace. China's economy has achieved effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity. Thank you.

综合上述几个方面看，当前国际形势复杂多变，世界经济增长总体放缓，国际贸易也在放缓，多数国家通胀压力明显上升，在这种情况下，今年上半年中国经济保持4.7%的增速，难能可贵。同时价格保持温和上涨，就业总体平稳，国际收支改善，特别是新兴领域新动能加快成长壮大。中国经济实现了质的有效提升和量的合理增长。谢谢。

**Zhonghong.net reporter:** In the first half, the monthly data for total retail sales of consumer goods fluctuated, and the market has paid close attention to this. How do you view market performance in the first half? And what is the overall economic trend for the second half? Thank you.